Historical on-time performance
Sacramento to Chicago
1,781 miData through May 2026Source: US DOT · BTS
Flights on SMF–ORD arrive on time 75% of the time over the last 12 months.
On-time rate75%arrived within 15 min
p90 delay45 min1 in 10 flights is worse (tail risk)
Cancelled1.0%of scheduled flights
based on 1,306 flights over the last 12 months. On-time means arriving within 15 minutes (BTS standard).
By airline
How each carrier compares
- United AirlinesbestOn-time78%Medianon timep9035 minCancel0.8%Flights987
- American AirlinesOn-time65%Medianon timep9075 minCancel1.6%Flights319
Why flights run late
Delay causes
- Airline29%
- Weather1%
- Air traffic (NAS)35%
- Late aircraft35%
- Security0%
Most delay minutes here are attributed to Late aircraft.
When flights don't go
Why flights were cancelled
- Airline8%
- Weather92%
- Air traffic (NAS)0%
- Security0%
Most cancellations here are attributed to Weather. Shares are among 13 cancellations with a reported cause (BTS reports causes from June 2003).
Over time
On-time trend
By season
On-time rate by month
When to fly
Best time to fly SMF → ORD
All airlines · rolling 36 months (2023-06 .. 2026-05).
Best time of day
Mornings are the most reliable time of day to fly this route — 90% on time.
- Mornings90% on time · p90 10 min · 1,099 flights
- Middays85% on time · p90 20 min · 892 flights
- Overnights76% on time · p90 45 min · 871 flights
- Afternoons67% on time · p90 60 min · 717 flights
Best day of week
On-time rates are fairly even by day on this route — ranging from 78% to 83% on time.
- Thursdays83% on time · p90 25 min · 530 flights
- Tuesdays82% on time · p90 25 min · 498 flights
- Wednesdays81% on time · p90 30 min · 518 flights
- Saturdays81% on time · p90 30 min · 513 flights
- Mondays80% on time · p90 30 min · 525 flights
- Fridays78% on time · p90 35 min · 528 flights
- Sundays78% on time · p90 40 min · 534 flights
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