OnTimeStats

Historical on-time performance

Seattle to Fairbanks

1,533 miData through May 2026Source: US DOT · BTS

Flights on SEA–FAI arrive on time 75% of the time over the last 12 months.

On-time rate75%arrived within 15 min
p90 delay35 min1 in 10 flights is worse (tail risk)
Cancelled1.0%of scheduled flights

based on 2,316 flights over the last 12 months. On-time means arriving within 15 minutes (BTS standard).

By airline

How each carrier compares

Too close to call — no single carrier is clearly more on-time here.

  • Delta Air Lines
    On-time78%
    Medianon time
    p9030 min
    Cancel2.2%
    Flights457
  • Alaska Airlines
    On-time74%
    Medianon time
    p9035 min
    Cancel0.8%
    Flights1,859

Why flights run late

Delay causes

  • Airline44%
  • Weather3%
  • Air traffic (NAS)20%
  • Late aircraft33%
  • Security0%

Most delay minutes here are attributed to Airline.

When flights don't go

Why flights were cancelled

  • Airline54%
  • Weather46%
  • Air traffic (NAS)0%
  • Security0%

Most cancellations here are attributed to Airline. Shares are among 24 cancellations with a reported cause (BTS reports causes from June 2003).

Over time

On-time trend

By season

On-time rate by month

When to fly

Best time to fly SEA → FAI

All airlines · rolling 36 months (2023-06 .. 2026-05).

Best time of day

Afternoons are the most reliable time of day to fly this route — 88% on time.

  • Afternoons88% on time · p90 15 min · 108 flights · limited
  • Mornings78% on time · p90 25 min · 1,215 flights
  • Overnights78% on time · p90 30 min · 3,002 flights
  • Middays74% on time · p90 35 min · 1,541 flights
  • Evenings71% on time · p90 40 min · 1,113 flights

Best day of week

On-time rates are fairly even by day on this route — ranging from 70% to 81% on time.

  • Saturdays81% on time · p90 25 min · 1,007 flights
  • Tuesdays79% on time · p90 25 min · 978 flights
  • Wednesdays78% on time · p90 30 min · 988 flights
  • Mondays77% on time · p90 30 min · 995 flights
  • Thursdays74% on time · p90 30 min · 994 flights
  • Sundays73% on time · p90 35 min · 1,007 flights
  • Fridays70% on time · p90 35 min · 1,010 flights

Keep exploring

Related pages

Methodology

A flight is on time when it arrives within 15 minutes of schedule — the US DOT / BTS standard. Median and p90(the “1-in-10 bad day”) are read from the full arrival-delay distribution, never averaged across periods.

Figures cover a carrier’s own BTS-coded flights. Cells below ~200 flights are flagged as limited data. All numbers are pre-computed from public BTS On-Time Performance data.