OnTimeStats

Historical on-time performance

Chicago to Sacramento

1,781 miData through Dec 2025Source: US DOT · BTS

Flights on ORD–SMF arrive on time 73% of the time over the last 12 months.

On-time rate73%arrived within 15 min
p90 delay55 min1 in 10 flights is worse (tail risk)
Cancelled0.3%of scheduled flights

based on 1,171 flights over the last 12 months. On-time means arriving within 15 minutes (BTS standard).

By airline

How each carrier compares

Too close to call — no single carrier is clearly more on-time here.

  • United Airlines
    On-time73%
    Medianon time
    p9055 min
    Cancel0.3%
    Flights988
  • American Airlines
    On-time73%
    Medianon time
    p9065 min
    Cancel0.5%
    Flights183

Why flights run late

Delay causes

  • Airline37%
  • Weather6%
  • Air traffic (NAS)14%
  • Late aircraft43%
  • Security0%

Most delay minutes here are attributed to Late aircraft.

Over time

On-time trend

By season

On-time rate by month

When to fly

Best time to fly ORD → SMF

All airlines · rolling 36 months (2023-01 .. 2025-12).

Best time of day

Mornings are the most reliable time of day to fly this route — 85% on time.

  • Mornings85% on time · p90 20 min · 1,261 flights
  • Middays77% on time · p90 50 min · 233 flights
  • Afternoons76% on time · p90 55 min · 587 flights
  • Evenings68% on time · p90 60 min · 476 flights
  • Overnights64% on time · p90 65 min · 957 flights

Best day of week

On-time rates are fairly even by day on this route — ranging from 70% to 80% on time.

  • Tuesdays80% on time · p90 45 min · 481 flights
  • Mondays80% on time · p90 35 min · 516 flights
  • Wednesdays75% on time · p90 45 min · 492 flights
  • Sundays74% on time · p90 50 min · 516 flights
  • Saturdays73% on time · p90 50 min · 489 flights
  • Thursdays73% on time · p90 45 min · 507 flights
  • Fridays70% on time · p90 60 min · 513 flights
Advertisement

Keep exploring

Related pages

Methodology

A flight is on time when it arrives within 15 minutes of schedule — the US DOT / BTS standard. Median and p90(the “1-in-10 bad day”) are read from the full arrival-delay distribution, never averaged across periods.

Figures cover a carrier’s own BTS-coded flights. Cells below ~200 flights are flagged as limited data. All numbers are pre-computed from public BTS On-Time Performance data.