Historical on-time performance
Chicago to Sacramento
1,781 miData through Dec 2025Source: US DOT · BTS
Flights on ORD–SMF arrive on time 73% of the time over the last 12 months.
On-time rate73%arrived within 15 min
p90 delay55 min1 in 10 flights is worse (tail risk)
Cancelled0.3%of scheduled flights
based on 1,171 flights over the last 12 months. On-time means arriving within 15 minutes (BTS standard).
By airline
How each carrier compares
Too close to call — no single carrier is clearly more on-time here.
- United AirlinesOn-time73%Medianon timep9055 minCancel0.3%Flights988
- American AirlinesOn-time73%Medianon timep9065 minCancel0.5%Flights183
Why flights run late
Delay causes
- Airline37%
- Weather6%
- Air traffic (NAS)14%
- Late aircraft43%
- Security0%
Most delay minutes here are attributed to Late aircraft.
Over time
On-time trend
By season
On-time rate by month
When to fly
Best time to fly ORD → SMF
All airlines · rolling 36 months (2023-01 .. 2025-12).
Best time of day
Mornings are the most reliable time of day to fly this route — 85% on time.
- Mornings85% on time · p90 20 min · 1,261 flights
- Middays77% on time · p90 50 min · 233 flights
- Afternoons76% on time · p90 55 min · 587 flights
- Evenings68% on time · p90 60 min · 476 flights
- Overnights64% on time · p90 65 min · 957 flights
Best day of week
On-time rates are fairly even by day on this route — ranging from 70% to 80% on time.
- Tuesdays80% on time · p90 45 min · 481 flights
- Mondays80% on time · p90 35 min · 516 flights
- Wednesdays75% on time · p90 45 min · 492 flights
- Sundays74% on time · p90 50 min · 516 flights
- Saturdays73% on time · p90 50 min · 489 flights
- Thursdays73% on time · p90 45 min · 507 flights
- Fridays70% on time · p90 60 min · 513 flights
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