OnTimeStats

Historical on-time performance

Chicago to Raleigh-durham

647 miData through Dec 2025Source: US DOT · BTS

Flights on ORD–RDU arrive on time 75% of the time over the last 12 months.

On-time rate75%arrived within 15 min
p90 delay50 min1 in 10 flights is worse (tail risk)
Cancelled1.3%of scheduled flights

based on 3,002 flights over the last 12 months. On-time means arriving within 15 minutes (BTS standard).

By airline

How each carrier compares

Too close to call — no single carrier is clearly more on-time here.

  • Republic Airways
    On-time73%
    Medianon time
    p9050 min
    Cancel1.4%
    Flights723
  • United Airlines
    On-time79%
    Medianon time
    p9035 min
    Cancel0.5%
    Flights1,237
  • Envoy Air
    On-time78%
    Medianon time
    p9035 min
    Cancel2.5%
    Flights405
  • American Airlines
    On-time67%
    Medianon time
    p9075 min
    Cancel2.0%
    Flights637

Why flights run late

Delay causes

  • Airline26%
  • Weather8%
  • Air traffic (NAS)18%
  • Late aircraft49%
  • Security0%

Most delay minutes here are attributed to Late aircraft.

Over time

On-time trend

By season

On-time rate by month

When to fly

Best time to fly ORD → RDU

All airlines · rolling 36 months (2023-01 .. 2025-12).

Best time of day

Mornings are the most reliable time of day to fly this route — 86% on time.

  • Mornings86% on time · p90 20 min · 2,391 flights
  • Middays81% on time · p90 40 min · 2,276 flights
  • Afternoons76% on time · p90 50 min · 1,623 flights
  • Evenings69% on time · p90 65 min · 2,275 flights
  • Overnights56% on time · p90 80 min · 386 flights

Best day of week

On-time rates are fairly even by day on this route — ranging from 74% to 80% on time.

  • Tuesdays80% on time · p90 40 min · 1,220 flights
  • Mondays78% on time · p90 40 min · 1,359 flights
  • Thursdays78% on time · p90 45 min · 1,363 flights
  • Wednesdays78% on time · p90 50 min · 1,220 flights
  • Saturdays78% on time · p90 45 min · 1,124 flights
  • Sundays75% on time · p90 60 min · 1,338 flights
  • Fridays74% on time · p90 50 min · 1,330 flights
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Related pages

Methodology

A flight is on time when it arrives within 15 minutes of schedule — the US DOT / BTS standard. Median and p90(the “1-in-10 bad day”) are read from the full arrival-delay distribution, never averaged across periods.

Figures cover a carrier’s own BTS-coded flights. Cells below ~200 flights are flagged as limited data. All numbers are pre-computed from public BTS On-Time Performance data.