OnTimeStats

Historical on-time performance

Minneapolis to San Francisco

1,589 miData through Dec 2025Source: US DOT · BTS

Flights on MSP–SFO arrive on time 79% of the time over the last 12 months.

On-time rate79%arrived within 15 min
p90 delay40 min1 in 10 flights is worse (tail risk)
Cancelled0.3%of scheduled flights

based on 1,773 flights over the last 12 months. On-time means arriving within 15 minutes (BTS standard).

By airline

How each carrier compares

Too close to call — no single carrier is clearly more on-time here.

  • Delta Air Lines
    On-time78%
    Medianon time
    p9040 min
    Cancel0.3%
    Flights1,426
  • United Airlines
    On-time83%
    Medianon time
    p9045 min
    Cancel3.3%
    Flights30
  • SkyWest Airlines
    On-time79%
    Medianon time
    p9030 min
    Cancel0.0%
    Flights317

Why flights run late

Delay causes

  • Airline40%
  • Weather3%
  • Air traffic (NAS)39%
  • Late aircraft17%
  • Security0%

Most delay minutes here are attributed to Airline.

Over time

On-time trend

By season

On-time rate by month

When to fly

Best time to fly MSP → SFO

All airlines · rolling 36 months (2023-01 .. 2025-12).

Best time of day

On-time rates are fairly even by time of day on this route — ranging from 73% to 82% on time.

  • Mornings82% on time · p90 30 min · 1,603 flights
  • Afternoons79% on time · p90 35 min · 1,190 flights
  • Middays78% on time · p90 40 min · 1,095 flights
  • Evenings74% on time · p90 50 min · 1,151 flights
  • Overnights73% on time · p90 40 min · 712 flights

Best day of week

On-time rates are fairly even by day on this route — ranging from 75% to 84% on time.

  • Saturdays84% on time · p90 30 min · 731 flights
  • Tuesdays81% on time · p90 30 min · 778 flights
  • Wednesdays80% on time · p90 45 min · 816 flights
  • Thursdays77% on time · p90 40 min · 860 flights
  • Sundays76% on time · p90 45 min · 832 flights
  • Fridays75% on time · p90 40 min · 866 flights
  • Mondays75% on time · p90 40 min · 868 flights
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Keep exploring

Related pages

Delay predictorfor this route→MSP airportMinneapolis→SFO airportSan Francisco→Delta Air Lines on this routecarrier detail→Delta Air Linesairline profile→

Methodology

A flight is on time when it arrives within 15 minutes of schedule — the US DOT / BTS standard. Median and p90(the “1-in-10 bad day”) are read from the full arrival-delay distribution, never averaged across periods.

Figures cover a carrier’s own BTS-coded flights. Cells below ~200 flights are flagged as limited data. All numbers are pre-computed from public BTS On-Time Performance data.