OnTimeStats

Historical on-time performance

Minneapolis to Chicago

349 miData through May 2026Source: US DOT · BTS

Flights on MSP–MDW arrive on time 78% of the time over the last 12 months.

On-time rate78%arrived within 15 min
p90 delay35 min1 in 10 flights is worse (tail risk)
Cancelled1.4%of scheduled flights

based on 2,580 flights over the last 12 months. On-time means arriving within 15 minutes (BTS standard).

By airline

How each carrier compares

Too close to call — no single carrier is clearly more on-time here.

  • Southwest Airlines
    On-time79%
    Medianon time
    p9030 min
    Cancel1.5%
    Flights1,620
  • SkyWest Airlines
    On-time76%
    Medianon time
    p9045 min
    Cancel1.3%
    Flights960

Why flights run late

Delay causes

  • Airline44%
  • Weather12%
  • Air traffic (NAS)16%
  • Late aircraft27%
  • Security0%

Most delay minutes here are attributed to Airline.

When flights don't go

Why flights were cancelled

  • Airline5%
  • Weather65%
  • Air traffic (NAS)30%
  • Security0%

Most cancellations here are attributed to Weather. Shares are among 37 cancellations with a reported cause (BTS reports causes from June 2003).

Over time

On-time trend

By season

On-time rate by month

When to fly

Best time to fly MSP → MDW

All airlines · rolling 36 months (2023-06 .. 2026-05).

Best time of day

Mornings are the most reliable time of day to fly this route — 89% on time.

  • Mornings89% on time · p90 15 min · 2,832 flights
  • Middays82% on time · p90 30 min · 2,127 flights
  • Afternoons76% on time · p90 40 min · 2,001 flights
  • Evenings73% on time · p90 40 min · 1,134 flights
  • Overnights72% on time · p90 55 min · 538 flights

Best day of week

On-time rates are fairly even by day on this route — ranging from 78% to 85% on time.

  • Saturdays85% on time · p90 25 min · 958 flights
  • Wednesdays82% on time · p90 25 min · 1,255 flights
  • Tuesdays82% on time · p90 30 min · 1,250 flights
  • Thursdays81% on time · p90 30 min · 1,308 flights
  • Mondays80% on time · p90 30 min · 1,315 flights
  • Sundays80% on time · p90 35 min · 1,235 flights
  • Fridays78% on time · p90 35 min · 1,311 flights

Keep exploring

Related pages

Methodology

A flight is on time when it arrives within 15 minutes of schedule — the US DOT / BTS standard. Median and p90(the “1-in-10 bad day”) are read from the full arrival-delay distribution, never averaged across periods.

Figures cover a carrier’s own BTS-coded flights. Cells below ~200 flights are flagged as limited data. All numbers are pre-computed from public BTS On-Time Performance data.